Machine Learning (ML) using Supervised Modelling & Cyclical Regression
collective sentiment & cycles
Trading the stock market is probably the hardest job in the world and as a result of that the most humbling experience one may ever have and yet again its rythms follow the aggregated sentiment of a collectivity. Is the stock market therefore really that random? What if we were to apply a set of mathematics and statistics alongside cyclical concepts? Or even better compute all that in real time across thousands of symbols and publish it in comprehensive and interacive dashboards with visual charts?cyclical regression
Cyclical regression analysis is a continuously evolving family of algorithms that provides the simultaneous estimation of all risk parameters of a repetitive oscillation model. We have spent 7+ years developing a cyclical regression model and platform that's able to track in real time more than 2700 instruments across an array of asset classes. Instead of leveraging existing libraries we have developed the algorithm from the ground up hence allowing for optimal performance and fine tuning as well over time. The Hedgtrade platform is a unique offering in that respect combining not only cyclical projections but also combining it with seasonal patterns, technical momentum and trend indicators, dark pool and order book data among many other data sets.machine learning (ML) for time & price projection
At a high level the computation of the cyclical regression starts with the idea similar to that of a Fourier transform which is a mathematical function that transforms a timeseries from the time domain to the frequency domain. This is a very powerful transformation which gives us the ability to understand the harmonics that are inside the underlying data. Complex signals made from the sum of sine waves are all around us and that includes stock market dataseries. In fact, all signals in the real world can be represented as the sum of sine waves, and this is where the marriage of cyclical regression along with the computation of the underlying dominant harmonics of any financial instrument starts to make sense in order to uncover alpha, but not yet and one still has to extend that matrix into a time projection. This is where the world of machine learning comes into play in order to generate and document projections across all kinds of timeframes, instruments, and asset classes.As an example of what the Fourier-like Hedgtrade transform model does, let's look at the two graphs below:
One of the key steps is to break down the market data series into its own underlying dominant oscillating components.
And to finally filter it by its most dominant harmonics in order to feed the machine learning projection model
And the result of that is a projection into the future that correlates with the underlying matrix, given all things being equal and updated in real time by the quant platform - example below of a projection with the Russell 2000 going into the next couple of weeks along with the thought process that it's all about building the sum of the evidence from a statistical point of view along with Hedgtrade's supporting models including but not limited to seasonality (aggregated, decennial, election, day of month, etc), order book stats, liquidity models, technicals (momentum & trends), VIX projection, US dollar projection, and so on...
Among other data points, the regression model also offers points of reversals for placing T/Ps and S/Ls alongside its technical trends and momentum metrics hence supporting the overall thought process for the investor to build the sum of the evidence and have a statisitcal bias that's removed from any emotion or as some would call it FOMO among other reactions to market movements
Hedgtrade.com is not a registered investment advisor, please refer to our terms of service, and privacy policy for more information. Please note that by subscribing to our service you agree to those terms as well as the no indemnity clause.
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Full API Access for Institutional Investors
In addition to the comprehensive visual experience that the platform's dashboards offer to the end users on a day to day basis, the tech savvy
investors have also access to Hedgtrade's underlying data sets in real time.
Have an internal project ? Or looking at whitelabelling some reporting data ? Or maybe for publishing through your own solution or what have you?
Please reach out for any questions you may have and our team will be happy to assist.
https://api.united-river.com/help
Quantitative Strategies & Algorithms
In the dynamic world of financial markets, traders are constantly seeking an edge to outperform the competition and maximize returns. The reality is that there's no holy grail, that just does not exist. What is is possble however is the production of risk adjusted trading algorithms that perform over the test of time, as opposed to maximum return or curve fitting.
This broader pursuit is what has led to the development of various trading strategies by quant funds and others,
with quantitative trading emerging as a powerful approach fueled by data analysis, statisitical & mathematical models.
The Hedgtrade platform does have a set of trading strategies that follow the underlying risk factors of the reporting layer hence
bringing absolute full transparency, as opposed to another black box that churns out trading signals without knowing where they come from or
why they were enacted in the first place. The Hedgtrade platform bridges that gap with full reporting on each of the risk models used to compute
in real time those trading signals.
Hedgtrade's Algorithmic Trading Capability
Quantitative trading, also known as algorithmic trading or systematic trading, involves the use of mathematical models and statistical techniques to make trading decisions. Unlike traditional discretionary trading, where decisions are based on human intuition and subjective judgment, quantitative trading relies on objective data analysis and predefined rules.
At the core of the Hedgtrade platform are algorithms that analyze vast amounts of historical and real-time market data to identify trading opportunities and execute trades with precision and speed. The Hedgtrade algorithms range from simple to highly complex, incorporating various factors such as price movements, seasonality, cyclical patterns & harmonics, market counts, VWAP, order book and market sentiment among many others, in fact its more than 40 risk factors that are covered for each of the 2600+ instruments available in Hedgtrade.
Key Components of the Hedgtrade Quant Strategies
- Data Collection & Analysis
Quantitative trading begins with the collection & analysis of all of the underlying data sets. Hedgtrade does collect and maintain its historical price data, fundamental indicators, sentiments, and other market-related information (seasonality, options data, etc). Advanced techniques such as machine learning and natural language processing are also employed to extract foward looking insights from unstructured data sources (SEC, Federal Reserve, etc). - Strategy Development
Once the data is gathered and processed, the Hedgtrade platform updates its quantitative models that define when to enter or exit trades based on specific criteria. These models are an aggregation of technical analysis, statistical arbitrage, trend-following and mean reversions. Backtesting has been essential to evaluate the performance of the Hedgtrade strategies. - Risk Management
Effective risk management is critical in quantitative trading to protect capital and minimize losses. The Hedgtrade algo concept however is not to use hard stop losses and take profits but rather to have a dynamic position sizing algorithm that provides netting effect (long vs short for the same underlying position), and also the benefit of portfolio diversification that provides again dynamic risk adjustments based on market conditions. Risk management algorithms continuously monitor the portfolio's exposure and adjust positions accordingly to maintain those predefined risk parameters. - Execution & Broker Connectivity
Hedgtrade does have a set of APIs for the more tech savvy investors that require automated conectivity to their broker-dealer. Hedgtrade does also provide email delivery of the trading signals.
Hedgtrade's Family of Quantitative Strategies
- Trading Zone Category
Using a set of of 40+ risk factors, mean reversion strategies exploit the tendency of asset prices to revert to their historical mean over time. These strategies involve buying & selling assets that have experienced significant price declines and selling assets that have appreciated excessively, anticipating a return to their average value. - Short Term Category
Trend-following strategies aim to capitalize on sustained price movements in the same direction. Hedgtrade identifies trends using technical indicators such as moving averages, VWAP, and trendlines, and accumulate long/short positions and will top up only in the direction of the trend, betting to ride and accumulate on momentum for profit and disregard the losing positions. - Mid Term Category
Index driven statistical arbitrage strategies that exploit pricing inefficiencies between related markets (US & Global indices). By identifying pairs of assets that have historically exhibited a strong correlation but have temporarily diverged in price, Hedgtrade can simultaneously buy the undervalued asset and sell the overvalued asset, expecting prices to converge back to their historical relationship. - Long Term Category
Macro models backed by machine learning techniques are increasingly being used to develop predictive models. These models analyze vast amounts of data to uncover complex patterns and relationships that may not be apparent to humans, providing a competitive edge in the market for long term investors.
Trading Automation with Hedgtrade
Quantitative trading offers traders a systematic approach to navigating the complexities of financial markets by leveraging data analytics,
mathematical models and automation. By leveraging the Hedgtrade technology, quant traders and investors are able to employ
effective trading strategies and gain a competitive edge that enhances their chances of success in today's fast-paced trading environment.
The Hedgtrade trading signals are no black box, all the models are supported by highly visual reporting dashboards as part
of the platform. All trading signals can be delivered via EMAIL or API (and we can also customize delivery by calling your own web services, etc)
Please reach out for any questions you may have and our team will be happy to assist.
https://api.united-river.com/help
Trader GPT - Empowering Your Trading Journey
Why Trader GPT?
Trader GPT is not just a chat trading bot but also a full blown real time reporting environment that has more than 4 million lines of programming code and supports more than 2600+ instruments - forex, metals, crypto, US bonds, commodities, global indices and US stocks.
It is your strategic wingman in navigating the complexities of the global markets.
With a robust combination of machine learning, cyclical regression, and predictive analytics, Trader GPT empowers traders and investors to make informed decisions.
Key Features
Multi-Factor Cyclical & Pattern Analytics
Machine Learning for Time & Price Projection
Real-Time Insights for 2600+ Instruments
Visual Dashboards for Enhanced User Experience
Mobile App for On-the-Go Trading
Experience Unmatched Benefits with Generative AI & Machine Learning For More Than 2600+ Instruments
Increased Profitability - gain a significant edge in your investment and trading strategy
Time Saving - get essential information to make informed decisions, saving valuable time
Reduced Risk - minimize risk by avoiding underperforming investments and drawdown
Access to Proprietary Technology - utilize exclusive technology and algorithms for a competitive advantage
Increased Transparency - visual dashboards offer a clear understanding of the market
Ease of Use - user-friendly dashboards simplify complex data for informed decision-making
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Trader GPT Mobile App
Take your trading journey on the move with the Trader GPT Mobile App. Access real-time insights, predictive analytics, and market trends in the palm of your hand. Whether you're commuting or enjoying your coffee, stay connected to the market anywhere.
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Choose a plan that suits your trading needs - available for both retail traders, and institutional investors. Unlock the full potential of Trader GPT with our flexible pricing options.
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Explore our blog for in-depth articles, market insights, and tips from industry experts. Enhance your trading knowledge with the latest updates.
Read Our Latest PostsBenefits
Traders and investors alike live in a world of probabilities not certainties
Along with the Hedgtrade quantitative platform, the monitoring of the overall directional risks becomes the job - effectively turning the manager into the business of minimizing drawdown and optimizing the opportunity from a statistical point of view
Our users have access to a machine learning and forward looking engine that helps forecast cyclicly adjusted predictions in short, mid and long term frames. Supported by a quagmire of timeseries calculations that derive detailed cyclicalities and other predictive analytics in real time, including but not
limited also to seasonal patterns, reversal points & pivots, cyclicly adjusted RSIs and option maxims series and liquidity projections among many others
The Hedgtrade quantitative platform is maintained in real time across 2600+ financial instruments,
and suffice to say it's taken the team more than 7+ years to design, code and backtest and has more than 3.8 million lines of programming code as of 2024. Our platform is a living organism and never stops growing, come join us and free trials are available to eligible participants
Key Benefits
INSIGHTS INTO MARKET TRENDS - By using a combination of cycle analysis, and other metrics such as the aggregated retail order book, you can receive valuable insights into the future trends for more than 2600 instruments across different asset classes (forex, US indices, commodities, metals, crypto, ETFs & US stocks, etc…)IMPROVED INVESTMENT DECISIONS - By having access to accurate and up-to-date information, you are better equipped to make informed investment and trading decisions
INCREASED PROFITABILITY - By using the platform’s content to inform your investment decisions, you may see an increase in your overall profitability, and less drawdown
INCREASED PEACE OF MIND - By having a deeper understanding of the market, you will be able to make more informed decisions, reducing the uncertainty and stress often associated with investing.
VISUAL EXPERIENCE - The visual dashboards offer a simple yet efficient user experience that allows for an instant understanding of the overall direction
EXPERT ANALYSIS - The analysis is performed using standard and well proven statistical and mathematical models, we have no secret or magic data to hide just a well organized and structured financial interpretation for more than 2600+ instruments, ensuring the quality and accuracy of the information provided
Hedge Funds, Family Offices / Independent AMs, HNWIs, Trading Platforms & Ohter Investment Houses
Have the Hedgtrade platform provide an additional level of comfort and confidence to what is a constant flux of stressful trading and investment decisions
For the more sophisticated
and quantitative guys out there, the Hedgtrade reporting service also includes a set of APIs that can be consumed
hence providing a seamless experience and a way to enrich your architectural automation
Free trials are available, contact us now for more detail
Ready to give it a go? We offer a 7-day risk free trial to eligible participants
Financial Advisors, WMs, and even for the well educated and seasoned retail traders & investors
The best trading and investment coaches out there will all tell us the same thing, we need a system. Only with a system can we all be more consistent and therefore profitable over time. The
Hedgtrade platform is a stable, statistically adjusted predictive model. The firm's mantra being to democratize its core risk engine, and make the world a better place by helping discerted traders and investors alike
We are keen to hear from you and see if and how we can help you and even your clients
Contact us now using the online form or by email and we will get back to you as soon as possible
Cycles & Pattterns
Cycle analysis, multi pattern seasonalities combined with other forward looking metrics can be used as a part of a comprehensive market research strategy to predict risk adjusted trends in the capital markets. However, it is important to note that the stock market is complex and influenced by many different factors, and no single model or approach can guarantee accurate predictions.
Cycle analysis involves identifying patterns and regularities in market data and using that information to forecast future trends. Seasonality (day of month, day of week, political cycle, decennial, and so on) refers to the tendency for certain market trends to occur at regular intervals throughout time, based on factors such as market behavior and historical patterns.
When all combined together, cycle analysis, seasonality and other forward looking metrics such as our aggregated retail order book model among others can provide valuable insights into the market and potential trading opportunities. Some of our most sophisticated clients also use the platform in conjunction with other forms of analysis, such as fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic analysis, to gain a more complete picture of short, mid and long term market conditions.
It is always important to have a well-defined trading plan and risk management strategy in place when using any kind of market analysis or predictive model. The stock market is inherently uncertain and subject to sudden, unpredictable changes, and it's crucial to be prepared for both positive and negative outcomes, so why not look at the Hedgtrade platform as part of your trading and investment toolkit, its difference will be felt instantly.
The Hedgtrade reporting service comes along with many different forward looking metrics and our users appreciate the ease of navigation in addition to the timely predictive analytics it provides. We do trials and also short web based product demonstrations, get in touch with the team to find out more.
Cyclicality Models Running in Real Time For 2600+ instruments
Supports more than 2600+ financial instruments, provides L/S trading bias in real time, as well as fully documented reporting dashboards that are updated non stop
Multi Asset Class & Template Driven
The platform is template driven in that any instrument can be mapped and onboarded onto the platform The following asset classes are currently supported: US indices, Major/Minor/Exotic FOREX pairs, Commodities, Metals, Crypto (Bitcoin), Treasuries/Bonds, ETF – country, ETF – sector US Stocks – DJIA constituents, US Stocks – SP500 constituents, US Stocks – Russell 2000 constituents
Forward Looking Analytics for the US Stock Market
One of the keys if not the key requirement to being successful in trading is not to look at what has happened (think "technical analysis"), but rather to look at data sets that provide a forward looking outlook. The Hedgtrade platform provides short, mid and long term forward looking projections and detailed guidance. Reach out today for a few sample screenshots and additional information, or even a short product demonstration
Efficient Design, Great Visual User Experience & API Library for Automation
Pointless to say, data sets and predictive analytics are as good as the publishing mechanism that's used to consume them. We have spent a massive amount of time in listening to our customers' feedback and ideas and thats an approach that will never change with Hedgtrade. A library of RESTful Web Services (API) is also made avaialble to those that require integration and automation, we are ourselves quite tech savvy and can help you customize any workflow you may require. Pleaae reach out and let us know your requirements
Interactive Dashboards
Machine Learning (ML) using Supervised Modelling & Cyclical Regression
Available for 2600+ instruments, combine these projections along with additional markers, included but not limited to buy/sell signal logic and various tyoes of seasonalities among others
S&P500 Sample Report
Key Advantages
- INCREASED PROFITABILITY - By using our forecasting service you gain a significant edge in your investment and trading strategy, resulting often in increased profits
- TIME SAVING - The service saves you time by providing you with the most important information you need to make informed investment decisions
- REDUCED RISK - Our predictions and analysis help you minimize risk by avoiding underperforming investments and drawdown
- ACCESS TO PROPRIETARY TECHNOLOGY - Our service utilizes proprietary technology and algorithms that are not available to the general public, providing you with a competitive advantage
- INCREASED TRANSPARENCY - Our visual dashboards provide you with a clear and transparent understanding of the market, allowing you to make informed decisions with confidence
- EASE OF USE - Our visual dashboards are user-friendly and easy to understand, making it simple again for you to make informed investment decisions
AI-driven quant trading, risk & volatility reporting platform for capital marketsⒸ
A highly visual alpha-generating and beta-neutralizing quantitative research platform for traders & investors alongside generative AI for user investigationPatterns & Analytics for more than 2600+ instruments - US & Global Indices, Forex, Commodities, Metals, Treasuries, Bitcoin, US Stocks & ETFs. Leverage the unique benefit of being able to crunch hundreds of risk metrics into a simple AI-driven Q&A environment for alpha discovery
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Trader GPT
for traders & investors Ⓒ
Powered by OpenAI's GPT-4, Trader GPT offers a large language model (LLM) chat function that allows you to ask questions & identify
opportunities in real time for 2600+ symbols - and by design with a strong focus on the US stock market
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Multi Factor Cyclical & Pattern Analytics Reporting
Generative AI & predictive analytics that cover more than 2600+ instruments across various asset classes - forex, metals, crypto, US bonds, commodities, global indices and US stocks - and helps investors accrue their alpha & minimize drawdown
Benefits Features
API for Data & Research - Custom Data Integration
Seamlessly integrate Hedgtrade's cyclical & pattern analytics and even your own internal data sets alongside our GPT 4 engine.
Create a world-class AI experience and power new insights into your investment capabilities
Quantitative Research Platform for Traders & Investors
forward looking market risk analytics that bring insight & visibility as to the direction of your trading decisions
Making the Complicated Simple
Traders & investors live in a world of probabilities - not certainties
Along with the Hedgtrade quantitative platform, the monitoring of the overall directional risks becomes the job - effectively turning the manager into the business of minimizing drawdown and optimizing the opportunity from a statistical point of view
Our users have access to a machine learning and forward looking engine that helps generate cyclicly adjusted projections in short, mid and long term frames. Supported by a quagmire of timeseries calculations that derive detailed cyclicalities and other predictive analytics in real time, including but not
limited to seasonal patterns (aggregate, election, day of month, etc), reversal points & pivots, cyclicly adjusted RSIs and option maxims series and liquidity projections among many others
Product Sheet Sample Models
Multi Asset Class, 2600+ Instruments
The Hedgtrade quantitative platform is a multi factor cyclical & predictive analytics reporting solution that covers more than 2600+ instruments across various asset classes - forex, metals, crypto, US bonds, commodities, global indices and US stocks - and helps investors manage alpha & minimize drawdown
Hedgtrade is maintained in real time and suffice to say it's taken the team more than 7+ years to design, code and backtest and has more than 3.8 million lines of programming code as of 2024.
Our platform is a living organism and never stops growing, come join us and free trials are available to eligible participants
Recent News & Articles
Hubbis - Asia Wealth Management
November 2023 - Singapore Algorithmic Trading Platform Aims to Fast-Forward Wealth Managers’ Investment & Trading Capabilities
Read Article
Hubbis Investment Forum - November 2023
November 2023 - We presented Hedgtrade in front of 300+ institutional investors keeping in mind that wealth managers are long term investors, but what about hedging?
Introducing Trader GPT by HedgtradeⒸ
August 2023 - Hedgtrade has been in the market since 2018, yet an improved way to
consume its vast array of analytics is now to leverage GPT-4. Powered by OpenAI, Trader GPT offers a large language model (LLM) chat function...
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Accrue the quality and value of your trading decisions and put the stats in your favor in terms of managing drawdown and taking profits by thinking in terms of daily, weekly or even monthly projection using machine learning and forward-looking cyclical & pattern analytics. If you are a hedge fund manager, financial advisor, HNWI or a serious trader then don't let your next successful trade slip away and get in touch now
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The Hedgtrade platform is a statistically adjusted predictive model that was designed and still is used to power investment firms. The firm's mantra being to democratize its core risk engine, and make the world a better place by helping discerted traders and investors alike
Copyright 2024 Hedgtrade - All Rights Reserved
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Drop us an email, we'd like to hear from you.
The Hedgtrade platform is a statistically adjusted predictive model solution. The firm's mantra being to democratize its core risk engine, and make the world a better place by helping discerted traders and investors alike
Copyright 2024 Hedgtrade - All Rights Reserved